SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Likely

SUMMARY…Damaging wind potential will likely persist into the overnight hours and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely to the south/southeast of WW 419.

DISCUSSION…A bow echo continues to shift east/southeast across KY/TN this evening. Western portions of this line continue to weaken as outflow surges southward ahead of the line into northern MS. It remains unclear how far south and east the bow echo will continue, however, a strong cold pool remains in the wake of the line and ample MLCAPE remains southeast of the line from middle/eastern TN into AL/GA before decreasing toward the western Carolinas. The latest VWP from OHX does indicate some weakening of the rear-inflow jet compared to 1-2 hours ago, but still showing 50-60 kt between 1-3 km ARL. The most recent measured gusts have generally been between 40-50 kt with many reports of trees down and other damage. Given a favorable downstream environment where strong instability and a very moist boundary layer persists beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modestly increasing deep layer shear overnight, some threat for damaging wind is expected to extend into parts of northern/central AL into northern GA and perhaps the western Carolinas and a watch likely will be needed for at least some portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.

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