SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Clusters of strong thunderstorms will affect much of MS this afternoon, with gusty or locally damaging winds in the strongest cells. Coverage of severe storms is not expected to warrant a watch at this time.

DISCUSSION…Scattered thunderstorms have developed across much of MS this afternoon. This activity is within a corridor of strong instability with MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg, and ahead of a weak midlevel shortwave trough lifting northward across LA. Midlevel winds are relatively weak, lapse rates and rather poor, and widespread nature of convective development may overturn the instability relatively quickly. Nevertheless, the strongest cells in the next few hours may result in locally gusty/damaging downburst winds. Given negatives, current indications are that a watch will not be necessary unless convective clusters can grow upscale and pose a more widespread threat.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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