SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Bowing segment, capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, may continue for a few more hours. The sparse nature of the damaging wind threat suggests that a WW issuance is not likely at this time.

DISCUSSION…A short convective bowing segment has developed across central MS over the past few hours. This segment is propagating eastward while traversing a modest low-level CAPE gradient, with a warming/deepening, moist boundary layer in place downstream. Latest HRRR guidance suggests that this convective cluster should persist eastward in some capacity into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Current mesoanalysis, and KGWX and KBMX VAD profiler data all depict a weak kinematic flow field in place, with less than 35 knots of bulk effective shear and around 50 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. With regards to severe potential, pulsing cells embedded within the bowing segment are likely to become quickly undercut by the convective cold pool, which may hinder downward transport of higher momentum flow aloft. As the storms progress into a more heated airmass, some of the stronger cores may intensify briefly enough to allow water-loaded downdrafts to transport a few damaging gusts to the surface. Still, the sparse nature of the wind damage threat suggests that a WW issuance is not necessary at this time.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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