Quick Check on our Weather at 10:45 a.m.

A beautiful, warm morning is in progress across Alabama. SKies are mostly sunny, except over the border counties with Mississippi where cloudiness is beginning to increase ahead of showers and storms over the Magnolia State.

Temperatures are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dewpoints are climbing as moisture invades from the west, so get ready for increasing humidity.

Winds are also picking up, averaging 15 mph over the northwestern counties, and 10 mph elsewhere. Gusts to 25-30 mph have been reported from stations like Haleyville and Cullman.

Low pressure over Wisconsin is producing the breezy conditions, or at least the interaction between the low and stubborn high pressure off the East Coast. The associated cold front is over Arkansas at this hour.

We continue to eye showers and storms over Mississippi, calculating whether they will be able to get into Alabama. Conventional wisdom would say that the storms would actually increase as they move into the state, but upper-level temperatures actually increase with height, resulting in hostile conditions for storms.

The Mesoscale Convective Vortex sliding northeastward over South Central Mississippi should get into Alabama after lunchtime, around 1 p.m. Areas west of I-65 will experience the best rain chances, with the showers and storms running out of gas shortly thereafter.

More storms will enter Northwest Alabama this evening, in association with a passing disturbance. It looks like they will dissipate before they have the chance to get to I-59.

So, rain chances are not too hopeful for today. Most areas west of I-65 will get a tenth to a quarter of an inch, About 40% of the area will see one-half inch or more, and about 10% of the area will be lucky enough to get an inch of rain.

There is a marginal (1/5) risk of isolated severe weather over the western counties with any storms that manage to get their act together. With little in the way of bulk shear, the chance looks minimal.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS