SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Convective development occurring, associated with a remnant MCV. Some localized wind gusts/small hail possible.

DISCUSSION…An MCV is tracking across portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Diurnal heating and dew point temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s F ahead of this feature have led to destabilization of the airmass, with MLCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range along with little appreciable CIN. Regional satellite/radar shows an arc of convective redevelopment occurring in association with the MCV, along with somewhat disorganized cellular development occurring in advance of this feature. Currently, wind shear across the region remains marginal at best, although the EVX VAD shows perhaps some localized MCV-related enhanced shear, with 25 kt of 4-6 km shear. Trends in the mesoanalysis suggest this minor MCV-related uptick in the shear may continue to occur for the next few hours, leading to perhaps some localized wind gusts/small hail. A watch is not anticipated at this time.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions