SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Storms will become increasingly widespread across the western and central Gulf Coast region into the afternoon, but expect only locally stronger/severe storms embedded within the broader area of convection. A WW is not anticipated in the short term, but we will monitor convective evolution.

DISCUSSION…Latest surface analysis shows a very moist low-level airmass across the discussion area, with a weak surface front extending from the Tennessee Valley southwest across western Mississippi and then west-southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. Meanwhile, a remnant outflow — associated with the MCV moving across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle — remains evident over the northern and western Gulf. A weak/subtle short-wave trough — evident in WV imagery approaching the lower Rio Grande Valley from the west — is contributing to an increase in low-level warm advection/QG forcing across the eastern half of Texas at this time. This ascent is manifesting as a steady increase in convection from the Hill Country east across the Texas Coast. While widespread cloudiness has tempered heating/destabilization across this portion of Texas, more scattered cloud coverage into Louisiana and points east is resulting in moderate destabilization. Eventually, as the increase in ascent spreads eastward, the evolution toward a broad zone of widespread convection is anticipated. Despite the moist/destabilizing airmass, deep-layer wind field remains tempered, with the latest LIX VWP showing flow only in the 20 to 30 kt range through the lower and middle troposphere — and only weak veering with height. This — combined with the anticipated storm coverage suggests messy/multicellular convective mode, and tempered overall severe risk. As such, prospects for a watch in the next hour or two remain muted — but we will continue to monitor environmental and convective evolution across this region.

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