SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A few supercells will likely persist across far southeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama late this evening. A locally severe storm including a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have recently increased in coverage/intensity across far southeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama, with the storms exhibiting supercell character and at least weak/transient rotation. This is occurring ahead of an apparent MCV which is moving northeastward across southeast Louisiana. This MCV is enhancing the low/mid-level wind field, with the Mobile AL WSR-88D now featuring around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, although deep-layer shear remains only modestly strong (around 30 kt effective). Coincident with a moist environment (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and corridor of moderate instability/weak inhibition, at least weak supercells will likely persist/redevelop over the next few hours. Any severe risk should remain highly localized, but a brief severe storm/tornado could occur.

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