SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Increasing strong to severe storm development appears likely across west central through northern Georgia, including the Greater Atlanta Metropolitan area, by 5-6 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION…Pre-frontal southerly low-level flow has veered and weakened some across much of northern and western Georgia, but deep layer shear remains strong to the east of a 90-100 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. A lingering seasonably moist boundary layer appears weak to moderately unstable with CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg, and deepening cumulus clouds are evident ahead of the front, across eastern Alabama into northern Georgia. Thunderstorms seem likely to initiate during the 21-23Z time frame, at least a few of which may become severe. Damaging wind gusts appear the primary potential severe hazard, with some risk for severe hail. A tornado may not be out of the question, but this threat appears relatively low.

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Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions