SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A broken band of storms continues to forward-propagate toward the discussion area and will pose a threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A WW issuance is being considered.

DISCUSSION…A broken band of convection located from just east of MGM to near PNS continues to migrate eastward. A break in deep convection has developed across the Florida Panhandle, although this break may be temporary. Storms continue in a moist, strongly sheared low-level environment, with upper 60s F dewpoints supporting 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, although slightly warmer temperatures aloft may be resulting in slightly lower instability with eastward extent. Subtle mid-level inhibition (related to the warmer temperatures aloft) may temper convective development somewhat, although the more likely scenario is for storms to continue eastward and begin impact most of the area perhaps as early as 1400-1500Z. These storms will pose a threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A tornado watch may be needed sometime after 14Z.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions