SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Storms may pose a risk for marginally severe damaging wind gusts and hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…An uptick in multicellular convection has recently been observed within the past two hours across central into eastern portions of Mississippi, within close proximity of a surface low, where low-level convergence is maximized. 100-150 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE is in place across eastern Mississippi into far western Alabama, fostering an environment supportive of vigorous convection. Nonetheless, deep-layer and low-level shear are relatively mediocre across the warm sector, and with a nocturnally cooling/stabilizing boundary layer, updraft intensity is expected to wane with time. The more vigorous updrafts may promote an isolated marginally severe hail threat. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible. A few of the storms have also exhibited transient supercell characteristics, with brief periods of mid to low-level rotation noted. Given the propensity of cells to merge (effectively weakening organized rotation via cell interactions) along with a stabilizing boundary layer, any tornado threat that remains will likely be brief in nature. As the remaining severe threat is expected to be short lived and isolated in nature, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

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