SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…An isolated hail/wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible, but does not appear immediately likely.

DISCUSSION…In the wake of early morning convection, some clearing has allowed for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s across parts of central/eastern MS and west-central AL. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present to the east of a weak surface low over southwestern MS, and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is present across this region. Primary uncertainty remains whether convection will redevelop as an upper low centered over LA and east TX moves slowly eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. Some short-term convection-allowing model guidance suggests additional storm development is a possibility, and shallow showers have recently developed across parts of south-central/southeast MS where modest low-level warm air advection is occurring. A 40-55 kt south-southwesterly jet is moving over this region, and 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may be sufficient for occasional updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible with the strongest cores, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out with some veering of the winds at low levels. Watch issuance is possible over the next couple of hours depending on whether convection can redevelop, but it is not immediately likely.

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