SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Convective line will likely begin impacting the western FL Panhandle around 15Z. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION…Regional radar imagery and lightning data show a well-developed convective line off the coast of the far western FL Panhandle. Current storm motion is estimated as 230 degrees at 25 kt for the northern potion of the line, with a slightly faster storm motion (30-35 kt) noted with the more southerly portion. This motion will bring the line to the coast around 15Z. Air mass ahead of the line, which is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and weak instability, does not currently appear overly favorable for persistence and/or intensification. 12Z TLH sounding does show moderately steep lapse rates between 800 and 600 mb but stable low-levels indicate an atmosphere generally hostile to strong convection. Given the time of day and lack of large-scale forcing for ascent, it seems unlikely that destabilization will occur before the line impacts the coast. That being said, the well-organized character of the convective line bears watching and trends will be monitored closely.

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