SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 25…

SUMMARY…Vigorous thunderstorm development, including a few supercells, will likely continue, with a slow eastward progression across mainly central and eastern Alabama, through 8-10 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION…Discrete thunderstorm development, including supercells, continues, and appears generally focused along a confluent zone near a lingering 40+ kt south/southwesterly 850 mb jet axis. The jet appears likely to undergo only a gradually weakening into early evening, in the wake of the deep cyclone migrating across the Great Lakes, with also only a relatively slow eastward progression. Given the corridor of weak to moderate boundary layer instability along this axis, supported by mid 60s surface dew points, the environment appears likely to remain supportive of supercells with potential for tornadoes into at least the 00-02Z time frame. It is possible that some of this activity could spread into portions of northwestern Georgia, but activity seems likely to remain to the west of the Atlanta metropolitan area, where a more stable environment is expected to generally prevail.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions