SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 13…

SUMMARY…Isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts remain possible across the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…A large area of rain and thunderstorms extends from a warm advection zone across the Ohio Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley along a cold front. As a result of the widespread precipitation, little if any further destabilization is expected north of the MS/TN border, while to the south, upstream heating is allowing a gradual increase in temperatures across LA, MS and AL. VAD winds from the region confirm strong to extreme shear profiles with effective SRH values of 500-600 m2/s2 common ahead of the cold front and across the Enhanced Risk area (MS into TN/KY). Possible areas for supercell and tornado development include: 1) Storms moving out of southeast AR into northern MS, in closer proximity to warmer surface air mass yet still in a high-shear environment. 2) Storms moving out of southeast MO and into western KY and southern IL, where the surface air mass is relatively cool but in a zone of better large-scale lift ahead of the upper vorticity max. 3) Evolving out of the northeast-southwest oriented lines of storms currently over northern MS, which will move into middle TN and northern AL later today, in concert with ever-increasing low-level wind shear.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions