SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 7… 8…

SUMMARY…The potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two is increasing ahead of newly developed convection in the far western Florida Panhandle. The severe threat will then decrease behind the main line of convection.

DISCUSSION…The primary band of convection, located from Russell to Mobile Counties in AL, is currently progressing east-southeast across southern portions of Tornado Watches 007 and 008, preceded by a newly developed line of storms, located across Convington County AL, to Escambia County FL. These storms are currently progressing across an air mass characterized by rich low-level moisture and modest low- to mid-level lapse rates (per 21Z RAP forecast soundings), yielding MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg. 21Z TLH VAD profiler soundings also indicate up to 300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, with over 100 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1km layer, suggesting at least some potential for convective cells embedded in either of the aforementioned lines to rotate. Still, surface flow has been veering with time given the eastward translation of the surface low, and this will likely limit tornado potential somewhat. As such, precipitation-loaded downdrafts inducing damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat associated with this convection, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours. As both convective lines pass, the severe threat will diminish across the area.

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