SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 7… 8…

SUMMARY…The potential for tornadoes is seemingly most favorable with storms near and east of the surface low and as storms move within the warm frontal zone where pressure falls are maximized.

DISCUSSION…Latest subjective surface analysis places a 1007mb surface low over central AL with a warm front extending east into central GA near Macon. Surface pressure falls range from 4-5mb per 2 hours across the warm frontal zone. Surface temperatures on the immediate cool side of the boundary range are in the middle-upper 60s degrees F but are in the 70-72 degree F range south of the boundary. It appears the lack of tornado production so far has been limited by modest low-level lapse rates (not quite warm enough boundary layer) and its influence on low-level updraft acceleration with moderate to strong mid-level mesocyclones. It remains unclear whether the bootstrapping process for tornadogenesis with existing supercells will occur as the storms move through the warm frontal zone or if an additional forcing mechanism (i.e., squall line cold pool, increasingly favorable large-scale support owing to more juxtaposition with the surface low) is required. Nonetheless, a tornado and and isolated damaging gusts will continue to be hazards associated with the stronger storms.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions