Moisture Levels Slowly Rising In Coming Days

STILL DRY TODAY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA: We are forecasting a partly sunny sky for the northern half of Alabama today with a high in the mid to upper 60s. A few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, are possible for South Alabama late today and tonight… in fact SPC has a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe storm defined for southern parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties where the air becomes unstable.

Clouds increase tonight, and a few showers are possible statewide.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy and mild day, and we have potential for a few scattered showers or storms. Nothing too heavy or widespread, and the high will be close to 70 degrees. A disturbance will bring an increase in the number of showers and storms Thursday, and a few strong storms are possible over South Alabama. SPC has another “marginal risk (level 1/5) defined for South Alabama Thursday.

But it won’t rain all day Thursday, and the weather stays mild with a high once again close to 70. Then, on Friday, a few showers are possible, but for now it looks like they will be fairly widely scattered. Friday’s high will creep up into the low 70s, and the day will feature more clouds than sun.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Forecast confidence remains very low as the global models are about as different as day and night. We will trend toward the European model in our forecast; Saturday will be mostly cloudy, but with just a few showers. The day should stay mild with a high between 65 and 70. But, Sunday looks wet and colder as an Arctic front passes through the state; temperatures could very well fall through the 50s during the day, possibly reaching the 40s over parts of North Alabama.

But, again, understand this is a low confidence forecast and it could easily change as we get closer to the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: A wave forms on the Arctic front, which will keep some chance of a cold rain in the forecast Monday for much of the state. There could be some winter mischief (wintry precipitation) on the northern periphery of the precipitation mass Monday, mainly over Tennessee, but for now it doesn’t look to be an especially high impact event. But, once again, this is six days out and it could change. Cold air stays in place much of the week with tempearures below average for March. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TORNADO SURVEYS: NWS Birmingham identified three tornadoes in Alabama from Saturday’s thunderstorms… an EF-1 near Kingville in Lamar County (between Vernon and Kennedy), another EF-1 in Coosa County southeast of Rockford, and an EF-0 near the Fayette/Walker County line. Thankfully there were no injuries. The tornado at Columbus, MS was rated EF-3 by the NWS Jackson. One person was killed there, and 11 injuries were reported.

ON THIS DATE IN 2011: The tallest tree in Wales falls after a wind storm. Located on the Lake Vyrnwy Estate, this 124-year-old Douglas fir stood at 63.7 m (208.9 feet). The tree reportedly was leaning over and had two substantial cracks in the main trunk. This tree would be carved into a giant hand.

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I have a weather program this morning for a home school group in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos