SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 5… 6…

SUMMARY…An isolated severe threat will continue from central MS into central/northern AL and far south-central TN the next few hours.

DISCUSSION…The severe threat has largely diminished across the region given cooling boundary layer temperatures and working over of the airmass by widespread precipitation associated with weakening line/storm clusters. Occasional moderate rotation has been noted, most recently in a cell in Walker County AL over the last 30 minutes or so. Deep layer shear remains favorable for rotating updrafts, but any organized, intense cell will likely be short-lived as forcing for ascent continues to weaken with eastward extent. In the short term, a low-end severe/tornado threat will continue for another couple of hours across Tornado Watch 6. Further west, storms have intensified ahead of the approaching cold front across central MS. These storms could pose a damaging wind threat given some weak surface based instability and fast storm motion. This threat should remain limited in time and space however as line of storms tracks across an increasingly stabilizing boundary layer through the evening. As such, a new watch is not expected across this area and the remainder of Tornado Watch 5 will be allowed to expire as scheduled at 02z.

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