SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will continue through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Broken bands of convection continue to migrate north-northeastward around 45 knots across the discussion area. These trends should continue through early afternoon, with weak forcing aloft and a lack of large-scale ascent favoring quasi-discrete convective modes. Convective development should also continue to regenerate on the southern end of the discussion area given weakly confluent low-level flow amidst weakly buoyant (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE), uncapped thermodynamic profiles. Strong low-level shear (as evidenced by 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH) in the warm sector will continue to foster occasional mesocyclogenesis (especially within right-moving cellular storms) and bowing segments, which should foster a continued, yet isolated, tornado and damaging-wind threat through at least early afternoon.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions