SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A low-probability threat exists for damaging wind gust and/or a brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so across the western and central FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION…A strongly forced but shallow convective band continues to move eastward at 25-30 kt into the far western FL Peninsula. Air mass ahead of this line is modestly moist with dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 60s. However, warm temperatures aloft and the resulting lack of steeper lapse rates is tempering overall instability. Modified RAP soundings estimate MLCAPE on the order of 250-350 J/kg across the western/central FL Panhandle. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, kinematic fields are quite strong. Recent EVX VAD profiles show deep unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft. When modifying these profiles with observed surface winds from VPS, estimates of 0-1 km SRH are over 220 m2/s2 and of 0-1 km bulk shear are over 30 kt. This strongly sheared low-level environment supports the potential for storm rotation, even within shallow convection. As such, there is a low-probability threat for a damaging wind gust and perhaps even a brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so.

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