SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…The potential for mesocyclones may maximize with quasi-discrete storms as they merge with the squall line. A modest conditional risk for a brief/weak tornado and/or wind damage would likely focus with rotating convective structures.

DISCUSSION…Recent surface analysis places a warm front over southwest AL extending east but arcing to the southeast towards Dothan. South of the boundary, surface-based buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg SBCAPE) will support updraft vigor in combination with low-level shear aiding in storm organization. It seems a condition of a stronger/deeper and more persistent updraft (characterized by echo tops exceeding 30,000 ft) is needed to potentially acquire low-level rotation. Yet, based on radar analysis during the past several hours, storm intensification may also need a favorable cold-pool-merging interaction between a quasi-discrete storm and the squall line. Given the conditional environment is favorable for storm rotation but only one storm has realized this potential, will continue to monitor activity over the central Gulf Coast.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions