Conditional Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon
THIS MORNING: A large mass of rain has been moving across Alabama this morning; nothing severe, and little lightning….
This rain will shift eastward in coming hours, with only a few lingering showers around here by mid to late morning.
THIS AFTERNOON: The air becomes unstable this afternoon with rising dewpoints and warmer surface temperatures… many places will reach the low 70s. The sun might even pop out at times. Thankfully the main dynamic support for storms will be east of Alabama by then, but a surface dryline will enter the state by mid to late afternoon. If this feature can serve to initiate new thunderstorms, they could become strong to severe. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms south of a line from Fayette to Hoover to Opelika… to the north a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) covers North Alabama.
Understand this is a conditional threat; many of the good high resolution models show no thunderstorm development this afternoon. But, again, if storms do form they could produce hail, strong gusty winds, and an isolated tornado or two. The HRRR model shows STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values rising to over 4 units in spots late this afternoon across Central Alabama.
BOTTOM LINE: Much of this afternoon will be dry and mild for most of Alabama, but there is a chance a few widely scattered storms could pop up between 2:00 and 6:00 p.m., and if they do form they could be severe.
CALL TO ACTION: While this is a very conditional threat, be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings this afternoon. This is a very busy time of the year, and it is good to have an app on your phone designed for severe weather warnings, like this one by WDT.
And, yes, we do have college football on ABC 33/40 today. If by chance we have a tornado warning this afternoon, have the ESPN app on your phone, tablet, and “over the top” box connected to your TV (Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Google Chromecast, etc). You can watch the ABC games there if we have to go “wall to wall” for tornado coverage.
Here are the links to finding the ESPN app.
We will watch radar trends carefully today… stay tuned…
Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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