SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Some risk for a supercell tornado remains across north-central MS and this risk may eventually move into west-central AL later tonight.

DISCUSSION…Radar imagery from KGWX and KDGX shows a couple of quasi-discrete storms, including a supercell located over north-central MS. The airmass over this area is moderately unstable with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and surface dewpoints around 70 degrees F. Intense low-level shear is sampled from KGWXs VAD with around 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH when inputting the observed storm motion of the Holmes County supercell. KDGX VAD has begun to slightly veer in the low levels and will probably contribute to a south delimiter of the tornado risk (near I-20). Composite parameters are conditionally favorable for a continued risk of a tornado if any storm can bootstrap itself and ingest surface-based effective inflow parcels. This area will be monitored for a small tornado watch.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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