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An Updated Look At The Alabama Severe Weather Threat

| November 4, 2018 @ 5:59 am

A potent late fall weather system will bring the threat of severe thunderstorms to Alabama late tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning. A negative tilt upper trough with strong wind fields will support a deepening surface low that will past northwest of Alabama. Impressive wind profiles with large 0-1 km hodographs and an intense mid-upper jet should foster organized storms including embedded bowing segments and supercells with low-level mesocyclones. We will have an unstable and highly sheared atmosphere in place, setting the stage for a volatile night.

PLACEMENT: There is no change in the severe weather outlook from SPC (the Storm Prediction Center)… there is an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe storms north of a line from Aliceville to Northport to Arab to Gurley. The standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) extends as far south as Linden, Jemison, Talladega, and Piedmont. A “marginal risk” (level 1/5) is defined down to Gulf Shores, Luverne, and Opelika.

SPC notes a moderate risk (level 4/5) upgrade might be warranted for a portion of this region in later outlooks.

TIMING: The main window for severe thunderstorms will come from 10:00 p.m. Monday though 7:00 a.m. Tuesday. Storm will enter Northwest Alabama Monday night, and progress southeast overnight. Storms could linger until 9:00 a.m. for far East Alabama; SPC has a “slight risk” (level 2/5) defined there on their “Day Three” outlook, which valid after 6:00 a.m. Tuesday.

Storms should be out of Alabama completely by mid-morning Tuesday; the rest of Election Day in our state should be dry with a clearing sky by afternoon.

THREATS: Thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In the “enhanced risk” (generally areas northwest of I-59), a few strong, long track tornadoes are possible. We do not expect any flooding issues since the storms will be moving along at a good clip; rain amounts around 1 inch are likely. Some hail is possible as well.

CALL TO ACTION: We are in our late fall tornado season in Alabama (November/December), so today is a good day to be sure you are ready for what the atmosphere will deliver tomorrow night/Tuesday morning, and for the rest of year.

*Every Alabama home needs a NOAA Weather Radio, properly programmed, and with a good battery backup. You can find them at many local retail stores. And, you can program them… see this video from our meteorologist Charles Daniel for easy instructions. If you already have one, change the battery tonight when you set the clocks back one hour.

*Your second way of getting a warning is your smart phone. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts”) notifications are enabled… go to “settings”, “notifications”, and at the bottom your will see the options for “government alerts”. This has NOTHING to do with politics; be sure “emergency alerts” is enabled to receive tornado and flash flood warnings. Also have a good app designed for warnings on your phone, like this one.

*Get the ABC 33/40 mobile app on your phone so you can continue to watch our live coverage in your safe place.

Get the iOS version (for iPhones/iPads) here.

Get the Android version here.

*Know where are you going. Your safe place is a small room (bathroom, closet, hallway) on the lowest floor, away from windows, and near the center of the home or building. If you live in a mobile home, you have to leave if you are in a tornado warning polygon. Know the location of a shelter that is available 24 hours, and be ready to get there quickly. Remember, a good part of this severe weather event early next week will be in the middle of the night.

*In your safe place, have helmets (bicycle or batting helmets are great) for everyone in the family, NOT just the kids. Also, everyone needs a portable air horn (if you need help first responders can hear them), and hard sole shoes (if you have to walk over a tornado debris field to get help). Portable chargers for your cell phones are also important so you can stay in touch and watch our severe weather coverage.

*Will this be like April 27, 2011? Long time readers know I am not a fan of this question. Events like that are generational; they tend to happen every 40 years. If there is only one tornado in the state, and if it comes down your street, then that is YOUR April 27. We have to be ready for every severe weather threat.

*We don’t share this information to panic anyone, or make you anxious, but this is simply information you need to make plans to keep you and your family safe. Hopefully, we get away with just a line of strong storms with little damage, but you have to be prepared for a rough night.

This is a fairly high confidence forecast, but changes are still possible, so keep an eye on the blog for updates.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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