SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A line of thunderstorms will progress eastward across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia today, with the main severe risk being damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION…A line of storms currently extends along the length of central AL into the western FL Panhandle. The air mass ahead of this line becomes much drier with eastward extent due to a surface ridge. The 12Z TLH sounding showed almost no MUCAPE, with poor lapse rates aloft. Southerly surface winds will persist throughout the day, although there will be some veering as the main surface low continues to move northward away from the region. This will allow marginal destabilization across mainly the FL Panhandle, where a return to 68-70 F dewpoints will allow for a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE to develop. Modest flow in the boundary layer along with heating/mixing may aid wind gust potential with a primarily linear storm mode. Additional activity ahead of the line is not expected due to the weak instability and presence of an inversion below 700 mb.

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