SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 420…
SUMMARY…Strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat continue across valid portions of WW 420 this morning, with the potential for these severe hazards to occur being the greatest across the southern part of this watch.
DISCUSSION…Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a QLCS continuing to advance east through western quarter of AL early this morning. Lightning data indicated a diminishing trend from north to south since 09Z, with recent concentration of strikes located across southwest AL where instability is the greatest. Despite the lack of stronger buoyancy with northward extent into central and northwestern AL, strengthening deep-layer winds fields across AL per area VWPs will sustain strong shear and large low-level hodographs. The severe probabilities for the tornado threat and damaging winds will be greater across the southern part of WW 420, given closer proximity to better buoyancy/destabilization. However, WW 420 should not be cancelled early across central AL, as the low-CAPE/high-shear parameter space is favorable for, at least, a transient/brief tornado potential embedded in the QLCS. This threat should diminish as convection encounters a more stable environment with eastward extent across northeast and east-central AL.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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