Rain And Strong Storms Thursday

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY AHEAD: Dry air remains in place across Alabama this morning; we expect a sunny sky today with a mild afternoon… temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s later today. Tonight will be fair and not as cool as recent nights.

HALLOWEEN: Tomorrow will be a mild, and mostly dry day with a partly sunny sky. Moisture levels will begin to rise, and we will mention just the chance of a few widely scattered showers over the western half of the state during the afternoon and evening hours; nothing widespread or heavy. The high tomorrow will be in the 75-78 degree range for most communities; not a bad evening for the trick or treaters.

STORMY DAY THURSDAY: A dynamic weather system will bring a widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama Thursday. Some of the storms could be severe, especially over the southern half of the state. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms for areas south of a line from Eutaw to Jemison to Opelika, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for the northern half of the state…

Models show the highest instability values over South Alabama, with the better shear values to the north, over the northern counties of the state. So, the system is a bit out of phase, but there is clearly going to be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms based on the forecast wind fields and lift, mainly where there is surface based instability involved.

*The main window for stronger storms will come from 3:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. Thursday.

*The overall risk of severe storms for the northern half of Alabama is low, but heavier thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and some small hail.

*For South Alabama, storms Thursday will be capable of producing damaging winds, some hail, and a few isolated tornadoes.

*Rain Thursday could be heavy at times; amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely pretty much statewide.

We note this activity on Thursday comes on the first day of the late fall severe weather season in Alabama… November and December.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Rain will taper off early Friday, but clouds will linger most of the day, and temperatures will be much cooler. Most communities will hold in the 50s all day Friday with a cool north breeze.

Then, we are forecasting a delightful weekend ahead with sunny days and clear chilly nights. The high Saturday will be in the mid 60s, followed by low 70s Sunday. Saturday morning will be cold… lows will be in the 36-42 degree range with some frost possible.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Great weather for the high school games across the state Friday night; look for a clearing sky with temperatures falling from the mid 50s at kickoff, into the 40s by the fourth quarter.

Auburn will host Texas A&M Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 62 degrees at kickoff, into the mid 60s by the second half.

Alabama is on the road to take on LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday night (7:00p CT kickoff)… it will be a perfect night for football with a clear sky and temperatures falling through the 60s.

UAB will host UTSA at Legion Field in Birmingham Saturday evening (6:30 CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with low 60s at kickoff, and mid 50s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: The new global model data suggests Monday will be dry, but rain and a few thunderstorms will return Tuesday, followed by drier air for the latter half of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Hurricane Oscar is in the middle of the Atlantic with sustained winds of 105 mph; it will move northeast in coming days and stay far from land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.

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I have weather programs today at Walnut Park Elementary in Gadsden… and Ascension Leadership Academy in Talladega… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, dry

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos