SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 406…

SUMMARY…Tornado risk will continue to increase within the rain bands spreading inland through the afternoon from the central Florida Panhandle to northwest Florida and southwest Georgia, as Hurricane Michael approaches the Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION…At 1520Z, Hurricane Michael was centered approximately 50 SSW of KPFN, with mosaic radar imagery showing three to four rain bands extending as far east as the northwest FL coast and inland across the FL portions of WW 406, and recently into southwest GA. Current track of Michael is to the north-northeast per latest NHC guidance. Trends in low-level SRH per objective analyses indicated more than sufficient values for embedded storm rotation within the rain bands, with SRH expected to increase inland across north FL and southern GA this afternoon, as Michael moves inland. Strong low-level shear located in closer proximity to the center of Michael to near approximately the longitude of KAAF with effective SRH of 500-800 m2/s2 will support a tornado threat. Although rotational couplets through the late morning had been relatively weak and transient across the offshore gulf waters, south of TLH, recent radar trends suggest a little stronger couplets may be trying to develop near and south of Taylor County. Meanwhile, effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 across the far northeast Gulf into northwest FL combined with greater instability will also favor low-level storm rotation, as have been observed with the rain band located 25-40 miles west of the northwest FL coast.

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