SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Tornado Watch Likely
SUMMARY…Mini supercells are becoming increasingly likely early this morning as the outer convective bands of Hurricane Michael move ashore. A tornado risk will accompany the stronger/more persistent mesocyclones/circulations.
DISCUSSION…Radar imagery shows the northern outer convective band of Hurricane Michael approaching the central FL Panhandle coast and this band will move ashore during the next 1-2 hours. The first several weak quasi-discrete convective elements are near Apalachicola as of 430am EDT/330am CDT. This activity is on the northwest arc of a band moving northward into Apalachee Bay. The 06z TLH and TBW observed soundings both showed ample buoyancy (750-900 J/kg MLCAPE). Time series of KTLH VAD data between the 0800Z-0830Z shows a substantial increase (15 kt) in 0-1 km shear with 50 kt flow evident at 1 km. As the mini supercells move ashore, a tornado risk will probably develop this morning and initially focus near Apalachicola, then spread inland and farther east later this morning.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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