Unsettled, Rainy Next Several Days

A period of unsettled and stormy weather is about to settle in on Central Alabama and the Southeast US. The surface low will move into the Ohio River Valley today dragging the front into the Southeast US. This front will be the focus of showers and storms for the next several days – at least through Wednesday – as it remains stuck in our area. Aloft, the trough will move across the eastern US but leaving a little of itself behind over the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the middle of the week. Storms should be fairly numerous aided in development by the front and the heating of the day. This will be one of those situations where storms might not die completely with the setting sun.

Temperature forecasts for the next several days will be a challenge. While it is going to remain mostly cloudy, the amount of sun you get along with when storms affect your location will be factors in just how warm it gets from location to location. I expect the highs most days to be in the lower half of the 80s through mid-week.

For the latter half of the week, the upper air pattern returns to big ridge over the eastern US. In addition to that, we’ll be dealing with Hurricane Florence. There is still disagreement between the two major models on exactly what Florence will do, but it’s looking more and more likely for a big impact on the North Carolina coast. With us well west of Florence, we’ll return to more of a summer-like pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and highs in the upper half of the 80s. One of the disturbing elements in the GFS forecast for Florence is the length of time it is projected to remain on or very close to the Carolina coast. Preparing for a hurricane that hits and moves through your area is one thing, but coping with hurricane conditions for 3 or 4 days will not be fun.

Rainfall during the next 5 days ranges from near 2 inches across the northwest quadrant of Alabama to less than an inch in the southeast quadrant.

Tropics: We are closing in on the climatological peak of the hurricane season, so it is not surprising that there is lots of action. In the far eastern Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Helene. This storm is affecting the Cape Verde Islands and could become a hurricane later today. The track is for this storm to recurve into the Central Atlantic and become degraded toward the end of the week.

Isaac was named yesterday and it could become a hurricane on Monday threatening the Leeward Islands by Thursday. It is way too early to know if this one will get into the Gulf or threaten the US, but it will bear watching as it tracks into the Caribbean Sea.

The one to watch right now is Tropical Storm Florence. Florence for now has winds of 60 mph, but conditions favor strengthening so it is forecast to become a hurricane later today. NHC forecasts track the system as a major hurricane into the Southeast US coast by Thursday and Friday.

While there is an increasing hurricane threat to the US East Coast next week, there is no skill in forecasting the exact track or intensity beyond five days as evidenced by the size of the cones accompanying the track. Those from Jacksonville to Cape Hatteras to southern New England need to monitor the progress of Florence through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS finally moves Florence out into the Atlantic around September 18th. The westerlies remain pretty far north but there is a trough forecast along the eastern US by the 21st of September. Ridging is forecast by the 24th of September which means a few more warm days.

Beach Forecast: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here around 7 am or so on Monday. You can always check back for the latest notes on Alabama’s weather. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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