SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A brief tornado or two may occur with one of the stronger cells embedded within Tropical Depression Gordon rain bands. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…Insolation within a dry-slot wrapping into the right-front quadrant of Tropical Depression Gordon has allowed for low-level temperatures to rise into the upper 70s/80s this afternoon, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (100 J/kg below 3-km) realized owing to deep moisture prevalent throughout the discussion area. Though Gordon is currently weakening, 25 knots of sfc-1km speed shear, with modest veering below 850 mb has resulted in up to 200 m2/s2 SRH in both the 1- and 3-km layers (as noted in GWX VAD/Profiler Data within the past hour). GWX radar has also suggested that modest storm organization and intensification has recently taken place within the discussion area, particularly in Clay/Monroe Counties in Mississippi. The more organized storms may produce sustained low-level rotation and perhaps a brief tornado where more favorable low-level shear is juxtaposed with the strongest surface heating and instability. Given the marginal and isolated extent of the tornado threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

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