Drier Weather Next Several Days

The rain gauge at my house has been quite lucky the last several days. So far for August, I’ve recorded 3.22 inches of rain while the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport has only seen 1.32 inches of rain. In fact, the storm that prompted a severe thunderstorm yesterday evening for portions of Shelby County dropped 9 tenths of an inch rain in about 45 minutes.

Some clouds streak the Alabama sky this morning with fog also occurring across the northern half of the state. There were no fog advisories in Alabama and fog should burn off between 8 and 9 am. The sky will be partly cloudy today with much lowered chances for rain thanks in part to the deep moisture being pushed into South Alabama. I expect to see a high today around 90.

The upper trough with a closed low just south of the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place through Tuesday, so look for only small chances for rain with precipitable water values remaining fairly low, at least less than 1.5 inches. Highs through the first of the week will be in the lower 90s.

Wednesday an upper ridge will move by followed quickly by a short wave trough that drags a weak front into the Southeast US. Highs Wednesday remain in the lower 90s, but with the front present in our area for the end of the week, I expect to see chances for rain bump up just a bit while the additional clouds and showers helping to keep high temperatures near 90.

Rainfall during the next five days will be at a minimum with lowered probability for showers and storms. You can see on the QPF chart the relative minimum over the northern half of Alabama through Thursday morning.

Looking into voodoo country, the GFS maintains a trough along the Mississippi River through August 20th, but brings the Bermuda High into the Southeast US by the 22nd of August. This suggests the potential for at least a couple of fairly warm days. But the upper ridge is beaten back into the Atlantic by the 25th of August as a broad upper trough moves into the western Great Lakes reducing the potential of any excessive heat.

Tropics: A low latitude tropical wave is in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa and expected to continue moving westward. NHC gives it only a 10 percent chance of developing over the next 48 hours due to dry air and cool sea surface temperatures. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet including the Gulf of Mexico.

Beach Forecast: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WeatherBrains: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I anticipate publishing the next Weather Xtreme Video here Sunday by 7 am or so. Enjoy your Saturday and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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