Another Warm, Dry Day for Central Alabama

If you liked Saturday, you’ll probably enjoy today, too, as our humidity levels stay down. But there are some changes coming that will mean wet weather for the middle of the week ahead.

Satellite imagery showed a good deal of clouds across the Alabama sky this morning with temperatures starting out around the 70-degree mark. It will continue to be warm today as our highs climb to around 90 degrees. The average high for late July is around 91 degrees. Showers will be possible across South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where moisture levels are much higher. Here’s the sounding from the Shelby County Airport taken last night.

Moisture levels will be on the increase Monday into Tuesday as an upper level trough is forecast to dig into the Mississippi River Valley. Our surface wind along with the upper flow will come around to the south and southwest surging moisture back northward. Right now it looks like much of Monday will be dry as dew points climb from the lower 60s into the upper 60s. Rain and storms will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Monday we should see another high around 90.

The short wave trough coming across Iowa Monday will dig into Missouri and Arkansas on Tuesday putting Alabama and much of the Southeast US in a favorable area for enhanced lift and a large area of rain and storms from Louisiana to the Carolinas. SPC is not currently identifying any severe weather risk areas on Day 3. But it is worth noting that the heavy precipitation folks at WPC have a marginal risk for heavy rain over a substantial portion of the Southeast US.

Tuesday – and probably again Wednesday – numerous showers/storms along with clouds should hold our highs in the middle 80s. Yesterday the GFS MOS guidance showed 82 but today’s table shows 84 – probably a pretty accurate number.

The upper trough will remain over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through next weekend though it is forecast to weaken a good deal by next Sunday and Monday. This pattern with the trough nearby will help to keep our weather somewhat unsettled into next weekend with fairly good chances for showers and storms each day. Temperatures for the latter half of the week should see highs in the upper half of the 80s with morning lows around 70 degrees.

Rainfall over the next five days could be sufficient to bring a large area of Alabama amounts of one and a half to slightly over 2 inches of rain. This will certainly be a great way to start August in the Southeast US with a broad area of soaking rain. At this time, there are no significant concerns about flash flooding since we’ve been dry for a number of days, but that could change as we get into the latter part of the week.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is bullish on bringing a ridge into play for the latter half of week 2. The trough over the eastern US is maintained through August 8th. By the 11th of August the ridge is bulging eastward across the Great Lakes region while the Southeast US remains in weakness elongated east to west from the Carolinas to East Texas. By the 13th of August the Bermuda high is coming into play across the East Coast of the US and pushing into the Southeast US. Could mean some fairly high heat – but after all, it is August.

Tropics: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin this afternoon; tropical storm formation is not expected though early next week.

Beach Forecast: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WeatherBrains: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. We will be on a one-a-day schedule for the next week as James enjoys some time off. I’ll be filling in for Charles on ABC 3340 News at 5 and 10 pm today, so you can tune in there to catch the latest forecast. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted here Monday by 7 am or so. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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