SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely
SUMMARY…Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with storms moving into a moderately unstable airmass. Organization and coverage of storms should remain low. A WW is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Storms that have initiated along the sea-breeze front in southeastern South Carolina have moved into a moderately unstable environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. While deep-layer shear has increase somewhat with the approach of a low pressure system to the east, values still are meager with only 15-20 per KJGX VAD profiles. Forecast soundings and 7.3 micron watery vapor imagery indicate relatively dry air in the mid-levels. The strongest storms will have downdrafts capable of producing an isolated severe wind gust. Given the overall disorganized nature of the storms, a WW is not anticipated.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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