Complex Pattern Evolving

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Central Alabama finds itself in a very complex weather pattern this morning and a challenging forecast still. Overnight an MCS or mesoscale convective system developed along the Gulf coast and that has been the focus of much of the severe weather overnight. But the risk of severe weather is not over just yet – but there are many uncertainties.

The cold front was located along the Mississippi River around 7 am, so the big question will be whether or not the atmosphere which has been worked over pretty good can recover. A line of storms stretched from just west of Memphis to about Jackson and will be moving eastward. In that zone between Birmingham and the front, dew points are still around 60 degrees and there is some convergence as seen by the line of storms. The question is whether or not there will be enough instability for severe storms to develop. I think the best chances for severe weather in Alabama will be east of Birmingham early this afternoon if the atmosphere can recover. This is definitely an unfolding situation so be sure to check back on the Blog regularly for updates.

The front should swing through here this evening as the closed low ejects out to the northeast bringing us back into dry weather and somewhat cooler for Sunday. Monday is looking good, too, but the next week appears pretty wet with a steady string of upper level disturbances combined with surface front to bring us rain late Tuesday and Wednesday and again late Thursday and early Friday.

And if all of this is not enough to talk about, the GFS has introduced a whopper of a storm around April 6th that could bring some much colder air and perhaps wintery precipitation. But that is in voodoo country, so we’ll watch how it unfolds and changes with each model run.

Thanks for tuning in today. Be sure to check back often as the Blog is updated with the latest information. Stay safe and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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