SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197…SW Alabama

SUMMARY…Storms ongoing in central/eastern Mississippi will remain capable of damaging wind gusts through about 02Z. An additional WW is not expected due to the limited coverage of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION…Storms east of Jackson have weakened over the last hour. Storms near the Mississippi River remain atop the outflow of the eastern storms. Storms will generally move in to areas of decreasing buoyancy, particularly as the boundary layer beings to cool. However, effective deep-layer shear of 30-35 kts will continue to support enough storm organization that an isolated damaging wind gust will remain possible for the next few hours. Given the anticipated decrease in instability and isolated nature of the severe threat, an additional watch is not likely. In western portions of WW 197, storm coverage has remained low. A few storms now near Morehouse County, LA have fired along the trailing portion of the outflow boundary and persisted. Storms forming in this area have access to more unstable air with MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg, though shear is weaker at 20-30 kts. These storms are also capable of a severe wind gust and perhaps isolated hail.

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