Shower/Storm Chances Heading Upward

The latest satellite view over the Southeast US showed a good deal of clouds over Alabama this morning, due in part to the weak tropical disturbance located over South Texas. The surface map continued to present with high pressure over the Southeast US while a frontal boundary continued to stretch from the Oklahoma Panhandle across the Central Mississippi River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic States. The majority of the rain today across the US will come in South Texas with what remains of that tropical system and along the frontal system. Highs today should once again reach the lower 90s across Central Alabama with only isolated showers and thunderstorms.

SPC continued to forecast a marginal risk of severe storms along the frontal boundary for Day 1. That risk moves closer to Alabama on Day 2 (Thursday) and over a large chunk of the Southeast US on Day 3 (Friday).

And the tropics are quiet for both the Atlantic and Easter Pacific basins.

The upper ridge that has been in place for the last several days continues to weaken as a closed low and associated trough move out of Nebraska today. That upper low will also be strengthening as it moves to the vicinity of Ohio by Saturday. This will bring increased chances for thunderstorms and rain to the Southeast along with the marginal risk of severe storms on Friday. That marginal risk area will likely be kicked up to the standard slight risk as we can better identify the locations for various boundaries as we get closer to the event. The primary threats will be damaging wind along with some large hail due to the colder air aloft with the trough.

The presence of more clouds and much larger storm coverage is expected to limit our highs to the 80s. Interesting to note the GFS MOS guidance showed an 83 high for tomorrow for Birmingham while the NAM MOS numbers showed an 81. I’m not confident that the highs will be quite that low, but highs should be in the range of 84 to 88. As you see in the graphic below, the 2 meter maximum temperature is even forecast to be lower.

The upper trough goes by Saturday, so we should transition back to a summer-like pattern by Sunday. This means going back to daily, heat-driven showers and storms into next week. Highs should climb back up into the lower 90s, too, as weak ridging becomes our primary weather feature. Precipitable water values should drop back, too, but the humidity levels will remain fairly high.

As we venture out into voodoo country, the GFS is suggesting a ridge over the Southeast on June 29th. The ridge migrates a trifle westward through July 5th as we see another one of those areas of weak lower pressure push into the Southeast from the east. The presence of a fairly well defined area of lower pressure aloft could spell a reasonably wet period for the Southeast US as that lower pressure aloft combines with diurnal heating to produce numerous showers and storms from day to day. But it is voodoo, so we’ll have to wait to see if this comes to fruition.

BEACH FORECAST: No affects from the Gulf system or Bud on the beautfiul beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

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I had a great time over the last couple of days visiting with folks at the Mercedes Benz plant in Vance talking about severe weather safety. And thanks to the blog audience for your patience with the lack of videos. Remember, we are on a one a day schedule as James Spann enjoys a well earned week off. I expect to have the next video posted here by 7 am or so on Thursday morning. Enjoy your day and be sure to do at least one act of kindness today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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