Summertime Weather Pattern to Hold

A couple of showers have managed to maintain themselves early this morning as the air mass over the Southeast US remains fairly wet. Precipitable water values are likely to stay fairly high for the next week or so keeping the chance for showers in the daily forecasts. Look for a mix of sun and clouds today with scattered showers a good likelihood, but not everyone will get rain. The highs today should be in the middle to upper 80s, a little above the 30-year average of 82 for Birmingham.

Weak ridging begins to take hold for the eastern US Sunday while we do note a weak upper low once again over Georgia. This weak upper low will keep the better rain chances east of Alabama during the first of the week, but by Tuesday this weak feature is moving out toward the east. By Wednesday the upper ridge is located along the Mississippi River. This keeps us in a summer-like pattern with afternoon heating driving the production of afternoon and early evening showers along with isolated thunderstorms. Highs for the first half of the week will be in the middle 80s, but as the upper ridge becomes stronger from Wednesday through Friday I expect to see highs climb into the upper 80s.

Rainfall during the next five days could be around an inch or so, but remember rain will come in the form of showers, so not everyone will see this amount of rain while isolated spots could see a bit more.

By Saturday, a fairly strong trough moving across the Great Lakes region will dampen down the ridge over the eastern half of the country. This does little to change our weather pattern as moisture levels remain elevated allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs mainly in the 85 to 89 range.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF bring some tropical mischief into the picture next weekend, but in very different locations. The ECMWF brings a surface low into the Northwest Gulf while the GFS brings it across the Florida Straits. It’s very hard to take either of these solutions seriously when they are producing such divergent results. And with each model run, they both seem to keep the development of this tropical mischief about a week out. But it is fun to watch.

Looking further into the future in voodoo country, the GFS has a very nice surprise in store for the eastern US with a very deep trough forecast to dig into the eastern US by May 30th. This could spell a nice day or two of some rather chilly weather. As you might expect as we enter June, that upper trough does not last long as it is replace by an upper ridge over the Central US by June 2nd.

REGIONS TRADITION: The Regions Tradition continues through Sunday at the beautiful Greystone Golf and Country Club! Make plans to attend one of the majors of the PGA Champions Tour! You can see legendary golfers Bernhard Langer, John Daly, Vijay Singh, and more. Juniors 18 & under are admitted free with a ticketed adult, and five-day grounds tickets are $80. Single day grounds tickets are $20. GET YOUR TICKETS HERE!!!

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The 2018 SEC Baseball Tournament takes place on May 22-27 at the Hoover Met. Don’t miss some of the best baseball in the country as the top-12 teams will battle it out in Hoover on the road to Omaha. Join us for the indoor FanFest which is free to the public, open each day of the tournament and fun for all ages. Single-session tickets are $18 each for adults and $9 each for kids 3-12. Bleacher seats are first-come, first-served in the General Admission sections. GET YOUR TICKETS HERE!!!

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. I’ll be heading out shortly for Caldwell Park for Doo Dah Day. I’ll be driving the 3340 Storm Chaser in the parade that starts at 11 am. Be sure to drop by the ABC 3340 booth if you are attending this event. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video here by 7 am or so tomorrow morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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