An Update on the Alabama Weather Situation at 10:45 a.m.

Showers and storms are occurring this morning across Northwest Alabama. They are the remnants of large masses of showers and storms that extend from Oklahoma to into northern Mississippi that are weakening as they move eastward out of an area of deep moisture convergence.

There is just enough instability up about 6-8,000 feet to generate lightning, so some folks over parts of Northwest Alabama have heard occasional thunder. No lightning in the state at 10:45 a.m. according to the Global LIghtning Mapper off the GOES-16 satellite from the SPORT folks at NASA in Huntsville.

Here is the current radar:

Noe the storms back west of Columbus MS though. They will produce some thunder as they move into parts of Lamar, Marion, Winston and Fayette counties within the hour.

Waves of rain and storms will continue to move east through the afternoon and will slowly sink southeastward. Again, any convection will be elevated, or not surface based, so there won’t be any severe weather.

A weak surface low will move east out of Texas this evening, and it will trigger severe thunderstorms across Northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and into western Mississippi late this evening. The SPC has an enhanced risk of severe weather for places like Vicksburg, MS, Alexandria and Shreveport in Louisiana and Dallas and Tyler in Texas. The main threat is damaging winds, with a slightly lesser chance of hail. There could be large hail over eastern Texas. There could be a couple of isolated tornadoes as well from Northeast Texas into western Mississipi.

The thunderstorms will weaken as they push into West Central Alabama this evening, but there could be strong to severe storms along and south of US-82 from Tuscaloosa to Montgomery and then southwest of a line from Montgomery to Clio to Enterprise.

The best chance for severe weather will be over Southwest Alabama from Sumter County down through Choctaw and Marengo Counties on down to the Mobile area. There should be no threat of tornadoes anywhere in Alabama tonight as the best surface based instability will be displaced to the south of the best low level shear.

Rain will become more widespread by mid-afternoon across northern Alabama, with occasional thunder in spots. The rain won’t be especially heavy. Here is the simulated composite reflectivity from the HRRR at 3 p.m.

The rain and storms will begin creeping into the I-59 corridor from Tuscaloosa through the Birmingham Metro into Northeast Alabama between 3-6 p.m. By then, strong to severe weather will be affecting areas along I-20 back in Texas, northern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Here is the composite radar at 6 p.m. CDT according to the HRRR.

Strong storms could be affecting parts of Pickens and Sumter Counties by 9-11 p.m., and an isolated damaging wind report is possible, but the only surface based instability will be over southern Sumter, Hale and Marengo Counties extending to the south.

There will be some non-surface based CAPE over the rest of Central and parts of North Alabama, so you will likely hear rumbling thunder at times. But the rain and storms will be weakening through the late evening and will end by 2 a.m., leaving just a few scattered showers exiting into Georgia and a thin line of showers along the cold front knifing through Northwest Alabama.

The heaviest rain and storms will be over Southwest Alabama by then, over parts of Clarke, Choctaw, Marengon and Wilcox Counties, and points south.

Temperatures will fall into the 40s tomorrow morning from northwest to southeast, and will have a hard time climbing back out of the 40s during the day, with a biting north wind occasionally gusting over 20 mph. The clouds will grudingly give way through the afternoon, but even with sunshine, it will feel kind of miserable.

A freeze watch is in effect for much of Central Alabama for Saturday night and Sunday morning. Here are forecast temperatures from the NWS:

Here are the freeze watch counties:

Protect any sensitive vegetation from lows between 27-32F.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS