Warm Weather for Your Weekend

Satellite imagery showed some clouds across the Southeast US this morning with most of the clouds mid or high level ones. So while we’ll see a mixture of sun and clouds today and Sunday, it looks like we’ll stay warmer than seasonal values with highs today and Sunday in the range of 80 to 84. The surface high is moving off the southeast coast of the US, so our surface flow will gradual become more southerly allowing an increase in moisture.

Sunday and Monday, a surface front will settle into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys from the north as the upper air pattern remains fixed with a weak but persistent upper ridge. The presence of the weak front along with the increased moisture brings a fairly good shot at some rain in the form mainly of showers with a little thunder in the mix. Increased clouds along with the presence of some showers should hold the highs for Monday and Tuesday in the range of 77 to 81.

As James noted yesterday, there appears to be signs of a pattern shift for the latter part of the week. The ridge begins to build a little stronger on Wednesday, so we will probably dry out somewhat as temperatures climb once again into the lower and middle 80s. By Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge is being pushed eastward and beaten down by two strong upper level short waves, one over the Great Lakes and a second in the vicinity of the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a cold front once again settles into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the picture. Confidence is not especially high on this scenario just yet since the GFS and the European have significantly different solutions to the pattern, the European much more bullish on the development of a surface low over eastern Oklahoma than the GFS.

Drought conditions across Alabama may worsen a bit with a week with no rainfall. Rainfall through Thursday morning will be light across the southeast corner of Alabama with less than a tenth of an inch. Rainfall amounts increase as you go north with around an inch possible across the Tennessee River Valley with the showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern shifts to a trough over the East Coast by Monday, April 24th, bringing a round of much cooler weather to the Southeast US. But the trough over the East Coast does not last long with a ridge over the Central US shifting over the eastern half of the country around the 26th of April. Toward the end of week 2, the GFS brings a fairly strong short wave into the ridge around the 28th of April for some potential storms. By the 29th of April, the GFS digs a very strong trough with a closed low into the Four Corners area.

Weather looks pretty good at the beach. An isolated shower is possible Sunday, otherwise the week ahead should be mostly dry. Lows will be in the 60s and highs in the upper half of the 70s. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page. Save Up To 25% on Spring Break Beach Vacations on the Alabama Gulf Coast with Brett/Robinson! The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s best beach offers now!.

IT’S THAT TIME AGAIN! The Honda Indy Grand Prix will be April 21-23 at the beautiful Barber Motorsports Park! Make plans for the event that has been voted “Best Annual Event” and “Best Sporting Event” in Birmingham. Kids 15 & under are admitted free with a ticketed adult, and three-day general admission tickets are $69. Single day tickets are $15. Pack a picnic/cooler and bring the family out for a weekend full of activities and racing! Get tickets and more information here. The weather looks good for the first day of racing with some potential for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Get the detailed race cast here.

Looking forward to staffing the ABC 3340 tent at the Mutt Strut this morning on the green at UAB. If you have a chance, be sure to stop by and say hello. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here first thing on Easter Sunday. Enjoy the warm weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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