Good Or Bad Forecast
Curious today that we had an unusual number of people thinking the forecast for today was wrong. During the day, I had an assortment of lovely messages like these…
Below is a direct paste of the forecast discussion I posted very early this morning…
You be the judge. The storms today were not linear, but random, discrete, and cellular. Some places didn’t see see any rain. Other places saw strong to severe storms; some dangerous. (that is a direct quote from the forecast package).
We had a morning round of storms with hail and strong gusty winds, a midday lull, and supercell storms this afternoon and this evening over the eastern half of the state with lots of rain and strong wind.
What didn’t happen were a few strong/violent, long track tornadoes. One storm in Cleburne County did look like it was about to produce one, but there was little damage. We will review this more tomorrow, but at first glance it looks like LCL/cloud base levels perhaps were a little too high, and low level winds were not veered around to the the southeast (they were more out of the southwest).
As I wrote early this morning… “There is always “bust potential” with every event like this; meaning a day when severe storms are not as widespread or intense as expected. When it comes to severe local convective storms, we still have much to learn. But we have to prepare for a potentially dangerous day.”
I thought the uncertainty was communicated clearly.
Quite frankly, I am delighted we had no strong/violent, long track tornadoes, which in turn produce lots of human suffering. Yes, there was wind and hail damage in Alabama today, but we had no loss of life, and only a few minor injuries due to falling trees. Below are some images from the storms today…
Please understand we deal with trolls, haters, and know-it-alls on a regular basis. Trust me, we can handle them. And, we know there are many that actually fo take the the time to read our forecasts here on the blog and appreciate what we do. And, for that we are thankful..
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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