Storms Tonight; Winter Issues Late This Week?

RADAR CHECK: As expected, this has been a busy thunderstorm day across Alabama. Rain and storms continue this afternoon with the heaviest rain over East, Central, and Southwest Alabama. A flash flood emergency is in effect for Jackson, in Clarke County, where some roads have been washed out and travel is highly discouraged…

The highest instability values are over South Alabama; a tornado watch continues until 8:00 p.m. for all of the Mobile National Weather Service County Warning Area. A number of severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for Southwest Alabama, and a tornado warning was just issued for South Baldwin County as I write this at 2:30 p.m…. a possible tornado was near Gulf Shores, moving in the general direction of Pensacola.

Another tornado warning has been issued for Crenshaw County, in South Alabama.

Also, a line of severe storms over Central and South Mississippi will move into Alabama within the next few hours, these storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. SPC maintains an “enhanced” severe weather threat for much of South Alabama, with the standard “slight risk” well into North Alabama…

Highest threat of a tornado will be over the “enhanced risk” area along and south of U.S. 80, but one can’t be ruled out over North/Central Alabama as well. Remember, it doesn’t take much instability for severe storms to develop in the cold season. The risk of severe weather continues for North/Central Alabama through about midnight, severe weather could linger past midnight over Southeast Alabama.

Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed tonight.

BIG TIME RAIN: A number of locations across Central Alabama are now reporting storm totals of 3 to 5 inches. While we have had some localized flooding problems, this is a very beneficial rain event for a state in an exceptional drought.

MID-WEEK: Lingering showers will end early tomorrow; the day will be mostly cloudy and mild with a high in the low 70s. Then, the weather turns sharply cooler Wednesday with a high closer to 50, and Arctic air settles in here Thursday… many locations north of Birmingham could hold in the 30s all day with a partly sunny sky.

WINTER WEATHER FUN AND GAMES? Snow lovers almost passed out when they saw the new 12Z run of the GFS, which was very aggressive with snow amounts over North Alabama late Friday night and Saturday, but they doesn’t seem plausible in this pattern, and the more reliable ECMWF (European) solution does show the chance of snow for North Alabama, but it would be mostly Friday afternoon and Friday night, with much lighter amounts… mostly 1 inch or less.

We need to get through tonight’s round of storms before we can really focus on the potential wintry precipitation… I will have a detailed “first forecast” early tomorrow morning here on the blog. Just be aware of the potential of winter weather impact across North Alabama Friday, Friday night, or maybe even part of the day Saturday. And check the early morning discussion tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK: Dry for the first half of the week with a slow warming trend. Take some time and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details that go with this discussion.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. FYI we will produce this week’s show tomorrow night at 8:30p CT.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and stay tuned to the blog for updates tonight…

Tags: snow, storms

Category: Alabama's Weather