Dry Weekend but Storms Early in Week

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Big weather day in store for the Nation’s mid-section where the SPC has outlined a high risk for severe weather across the area including the eastern half of Nebraska, eastern half of Kansas, and a chunk of northern Oklahoma. Of course, the high risk areas are surrounded by a moderate risk area as well. CAPE values expected to reach into the range of 2500 to 4000, so tremendous instability. Helicity values also climbing into the 300 to 600 range, so the recipe for severe weather seems to be coming together.

As for us, we continue to look for a nice weekend with highs climbing to around 80 degrees with some cirrus clouds in the sky. Monday the upper trough and the surface front approach with some differences in speed from model to model. Looks like our best chances for rain will come late in the day on Monday and into Tuesday. While there is some risk of severe weather for Monday and early Tuesday, SPC did not outline a specific area for a slight risk. Main threat should be in the form of damaging wind with embedded severe thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts late Monday and into Tuesday could be respectable with 1 to 2 inch amounts possible with the stronger storms.

The upper trough moves by Tuesday taking the rain east of us and returning us to a dry pattern on Wednesday. In fact don’t look for much in the way of temperature change since the upper pattern goes zonal for Wednesday. The zonal pattern begins changing on Thursday with the development of a trough across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The trough moves across the Ohio River Valley on Friday and Saturday dragging a front into our area and bringing a fairly good chance at some rain. We’ve had a nice string of good weather weekends, so I guess getting rain for one is not so bad. Some model differences for next weekend, too, with the European less aggressive with the rain than the GFS.

The overall pattern remains fairly active out into voodoo country. There is a little mischief around the 23rd and 24th with a weakness in the upper air pattern over the Central and Northwest Gulf coast which could lead to some rain especially just to our west. By the 29th, the upper ridge is back with a vengeance which there is a deep trough along the West Coast. This would mean a very warm end to April.

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I had a wonderful time at the Virginia Samford Theater last night for the production of “The Old Time Radio Show: Episode 2.” Besides featuring the fantastic music of The Dillpickers, it also included one of my favorite storytellers, Donald Davis. I highly recommend the wonderfully uplifting and humorous show, however, I also note that the next two performances are just about sold out. I hope that you enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather