Strong To Severe Storms Later Today
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THE ALABAMA WEATHER SITUATION: The Storm Prediction Center maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for just about all of Alabama today as an upper trough approaches, along with a surface cold front.
The overall idea has not changed much on this event. Thunderstorms that form across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon, generally in the 1:00 to 6:00 p.m. time frame, will have the potential for a few isolated tornadoes as there will be sufficient shear and instability. We do NOT expect violent, long track tornadoes… this event will be somewhat similar to the event last Wednesday when we had isolated tornadoes in a couple of spots.
Then, after 6:00, the threat will shift to damaging winds along the line of storms that will push across Alabama ahead of the surface cold front. The storms should be out of the state soon after midnight.
So… the window for strong to severe storms will be generally in the 1:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. time frame. The higher tornado probabilities will be over North and West Alabama this afternoon, but if we see any tornado activity it should be pretty isolated. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The sky clears tomorrow, and the weather turns cooler with a high in the low to mid 60s, where we should be here in late November. Thanksgiving Day looks delightful, with sunshine in full supply and a high in the mid to upper 60s. And, we stay dry on “Black Friday” with the sky partly to mostly sunny and a high in the 67-70 degree range.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Good news for football fans… the GFS and the ECMWF are slower with our weekend system, delaying the storms for Alabama until late Saturday night and Sunday. This will be a very dynamic system with potential for severe weather, but the degree of the risk will be defined by the amount of instability, which remains somewhat questionable. We need to get through today’s event before we really get specific on the weekend storm system, but with so many people traveling on Sunday, it will be something to watch closely in coming days.
IRON BOWL FORECAST: For now we will forecast a partly sunny, breezy, and mild afternoon in Auburn Saturday (the game kicks off at 2:30 p.m. CST)… the kickoff temperature should be near 68 degrees with a south wind averaging 10-20 mph. For now we are not going to mention any risk of rain or storms… it looks like that will come well after the game is over.
NEXT WEEK: We turn much colder Sunday and Monday following the weekend storms; still looks like we won’t get out of the 40s on Monday, and with a deep upper low north of the state, there might even be a few snow flurries down into Tennessee and extreme North Alabama Sunday night or Monday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information throughout the day as always… stay tuned… if the weather allows I will produce another Weather Xtreme video by mid-afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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