Higher Rain Chances; Lower Heat Levels Today

RADAR CHECK: Areas of rain and a few thunderstorms are moving across Alabama early this morning as the upper ridge has weakened over the region. Rain chances are higher today, and heat levels will be lower with many places across Alabama staying below 90 degrees through the afternoon. We still can’t promise rain for everyone, but the chance of any one given place getting wet today is 50-70 percent.

Not much change tomorrow… we expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms around, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The high will be in the low 90s for most communities, right at average levels for late June.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Pretty routine summer weather for the weekend. Partly sunny days with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” around. Chance of any specific location seeing rain both days is 50-60 percent, and most (but not necessarily all) of the showers will come from about 1:00 until 10:00 p.m. The high Saturday will be in the low 90s, followed by mid 90s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Drier air moves into the state for the first half of the week; we expect mostly sunny hot days and fair nights Monday through Wednesday with only a small risk of a shower each day. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 90s. A pop-up afternoon storm is a bit more likely by Thursday and Friday, but even then widespread rain isn’t especially likely. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave (Invest 94L) over the west-central Caribbean Sea is producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while it moves rapidly westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development later this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. NHC gives it only a 20 percent chance of development for now; if anything happens to form it will move into Mexico.

Of more interest is Invest 95L in the Central Atlantic. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. NHC gives it a 70 percent chance of development.

Way too early to know the ultimate destination of this system; it all depends on how the upper air pattern evolves in 7-10 days. Model spread is anywhere from Central America to the Bahamas; we will have much better clarity early next week. No tropical storms or hurricanes for the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) through next week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957: Hurricane Audrey made landfall Sabine Pass and Johnsons Bayou, Louisiana. Hurricane Audrey ranks as the 7th deadliest hurricane to strike the United States (3rd deadliest within Louisiana) in modern record keeping, with at least 500 deaths. The exact number will never be known, as many perished in the storm surge in Cameron and Vermilion parishes, and many missing persons were never found.

Along with Hurricane Alex in 2010, it was also the strongest June hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin as measured by pressure. The rapidly developing storm struck southwestern Louisiana as an intense Category 3 hurricane, destroying coastal communities with a powerful storm surge that penetrated as far as 20 miles inland.

Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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